Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200512 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  15.7  15.3  15.6  13.7  13.7  13.3  14.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 108.0 110.0 111.0 114.0  99.0  69.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 114.3 112.0 109.6 109.6 109.6 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  65.0  76.0  72.0  94.0  97.0  70.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.3  15.7  15.3  15.6  13.7  13.7  13.3  14.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.9%       49.0%       50.4%
 25kt / 24h       79.1%       86.2%       82.6%
 30kt / 24h       74.7%       82.7%       78.7%
 35kt / 24h       54.3%       82.7%       68.5%
 40kt / 24h       54.3%       73.5%       63.9%
 45kt / 36h       74.0%       88.4%       81.2%
 55kt / 36h       74.0%       84.1%       79.0%
 55kt / 48h       51.7%       75.2%       63.5%
 70kt / 48h       48.0%       60.6%       54.3%
 65kt / 72h       44.7%       76.3%       60.5%