Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200513 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  12.3  14.5  15.9  14.0  17.5  25.1  21.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  58.0  63.0  70.0  74.0  55.0  37.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 102.0 102.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  12.0  35.0  15.0  26.0  36.0  21.0  38.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  66.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.7  12.3  14.5  15.9  14.0  17.5  25.1  21.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.2%       42.5%       50.4%
 25kt / 24h       65.5%       74.8%       70.2%
 30kt / 24h       65.5%       71.0%       68.3%
 35kt / 24h       56.4%       71.0%       63.7%
 40kt / 24h       56.4%       59.8%       58.1%
 45kt / 36h       52.9%       66.2%       59.6%
 55kt / 36h       42.3%       53.7%       48.0%
 55kt / 48h       31.2%       41.4%       36.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.6%       16.3%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       20.9%       18.6%       19.7%