Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200513 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.3  16.0  20.3  24.6  22.3  16.4  17.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  68.0  66.0  49.0  34.0  30.0  52.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  15.0  33.0  21.0  21.0  41.0  57.0  78.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.9  18.3  16.0  20.3  24.6  22.3  16.4  17.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.1%       41.8%       55.4%
 25kt / 24h       69.8%       61.3%       65.5%
 30kt / 24h       69.8%       60.7%       65.2%
 35kt / 24h       69.8%       60.7%       65.2%
 40kt / 24h       69.8%       45.4%       57.6%
 45kt / 36h       61.1%       36.4%       48.8%
 55kt / 36h       25.4%       24.5%       24.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       15.8%       17.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%