Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200513 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.3  18.5  25.0  20.4  17.1  14.5  17.8  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  67.0  59.0  48.0  58.0  70.0  77.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  57.0  54.6  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  82.0  82.0  67.0  47.0  33.0  15.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.1  15.3  18.5  25.0  20.4  17.1  14.5  17.8  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       69.7%       37.7%       53.7%
 25kt / 24h       56.7%       47.0%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       56.7%       41.9%       49.3%
 35kt / 24h       56.7%       41.9%       49.3%
 40kt / 24h       56.7%       26.5%       41.6%
 45kt / 36h       87.2%       35.6%       61.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%