Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200514 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  19.9  24.2  21.5  16.3  14.7  19.1  18.6  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  51.0   3.0   7.0  17.0  59.0  59.0  72.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         67.3  62.9  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  52.0  29.0  48.0  84.0  62.0  54.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.3  19.9  24.2  21.5  16.3  14.7  19.1  18.6  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%        8.1%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.1%       16.8%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       11.8%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       11.8%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%        5.9%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h       30.0%        8.2%       19.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%        3.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        5.8%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%