Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200514 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.7  19.2  15.9  18.6  20.3  22.5  27.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  54.0  67.0  23.0  19.0  27.0   0.0  34.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  53.5  33.0  21.7  61.5  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  36.0  43.0  48.0  71.0  69.0  57.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.3  28.7  19.2  15.9  18.6  20.3  22.5  27.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%        9.2%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        5.3%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        5.3%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        2.8%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        1.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%