Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200515 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  27.5  36.2  40.4  42.8  41.3  43.5  48.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  34.0  45.0  53.0  45.0  28.0  23.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.7  70.0  95.5 117.0 120.0 112.3 107.9 110.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  47.0  41.0  47.0  37.0  40.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  57.0  62.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.3  27.5  36.2  40.4  42.8  41.3  43.5  48.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%