Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200516 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  40.0  48.1  49.0  46.6  48.1  49.5  51.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  24.0  27.0  22.0  15.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  99.8 101.6  94.4  83.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  64.0  64.0  20.0  58.0  95.0  76.0  84.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  65.0  71.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.7  40.0  48.1  49.0  46.6  48.1  49.5  51.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%