Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200516 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  43.5  46.7  45.2  45.9  47.1  45.5  41.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  34.0  38.0  24.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 132.3 106.2 109.8 102.7 102.7 101.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  47.0  36.0  40.0  53.0  48.0  64.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.7  43.5  46.7  45.2  45.9  47.1  45.5  41.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%