Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.5  46.1  43.8  46.6  50.6  46.4  54.3  66.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.3 130.7 118.5 111.2 107.7  86.7  74.8  62.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  16.0  36.0  66.0  90.0  74.0 110.0 129.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  62.0  61.0  66.0  68.0  73.0  76.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  48.5  46.1  43.8  46.6  50.6  46.4  54.3  66.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%