Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200516 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  35.2  39.2  40.0  41.1  41.0  41.0  41.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  43.0  36.0  29.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 139.3 127.9 119.4 109.8 106.2 106.2 106.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  37.0  68.0  88.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.2  35.2  39.2  40.0  41.1  41.0  41.0  41.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%