Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012020 200517 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  36.6  41.7  43.8  51.8  67.2  68.8  72.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  21.0   8.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.3 128.6 120.5 111.2  89.4  79.3  60.0  46.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  89.0  81.0  97.0  92.0  80.0 102.0 116.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  56.0  61.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  36.6  41.7  43.8  51.8  67.2  68.8  72.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%