Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022020 200612 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  31.5  35.2  31.6  36.8  40.4  38.0  28.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  37.0  25.0  21.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  89.6  67.0  58.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  21.0  30.0  24.0  36.0  49.0  59.0  31.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.7  31.5  35.2  31.6  36.8  40.4  38.0  28.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%