Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022020 200613 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    115.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  34.6  38.1  39.6  38.7  38.3  42.0  42.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  27.0  23.0  26.0  54.0  35.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 109.4  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  29.0  39.0  40.0  46.0  40.0  41.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.4  34.6  38.1  39.6  38.7  38.3  42.0  42.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        7.6%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.3%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%