Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022020 200613 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  35.8  40.8  40.1  35.8  37.1  36.7  31.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  40.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0  91.0  57.7  54.7  58.8  59.8  57.7  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -3.0  27.0  39.0   5.0  16.0   4.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  70.0  70.0  74.0  77.0  80.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.4  35.8  40.8  40.1  35.8  37.1  36.7  31.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%