Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022020 200613 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.4  39.2  33.9  36.1  37.5  31.5  31.5  31.5 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5  69.3  67.0  72.9  71.7  61.7  61.7  61.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  52.0  48.0  34.0  10.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  72.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.4  39.2  33.9  36.1  37.5  31.5  31.5  31.5 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%