Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022020 200614 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  34.0  33.7  34.1  24.4  29.4  38.1  37.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 125.7  99.3  68.8  67.7  94.6 125.7  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  48.0  34.0   9.0  27.0  25.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  76.0  78.0  73.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  39.0  34.0  33.7  34.1  24.4  29.4  38.1  37.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%