Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  31.6  30.8  31.1  47.6  43.7  52.9  46.5  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  70.0  72.0  75.0  81.0  68.0  34.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   7.0  31.0  15.0  51.0  40.0   8.0  91.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  11.0  45.0  65.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.4%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       21.5%       14.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        7.7%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        7.7%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        6.4%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       17.7%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.6%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        4.9%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        2.5%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        1.8%        2.3%