Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  22.2  33.6  41.2  25.1  44.4  41.6  57.2  N  N  U VU  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  84.0  86.0  78.0  37.0  23.0  50.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  49.0  45.0  69.0  32.0  -4.0  69.0  79.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   0.0  12.0  12.0  27.0  19.0  65.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.5%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       17.5%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        5.9%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        5.9%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.8%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       18.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        5.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        5.0%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.8%        2.1%