Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  42.1  37.7  29.3  47.1  44.1  58.3  67.7  U VU  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  86.0  67.0  39.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  86.0  79.6  86.0  47.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  67.0  75.0  59.0  -7.0  22.0  51.0  73.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  68.0  77.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  14.0  26.0  17.0  33.0  30.0  52.0  53.0  N  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.1%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       19.6%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        7.7%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        7.7%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        8.4%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%