Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    124.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  34.7  24.9  33.7  39.4  53.3  50.1  42.0  U  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  44.0  27.0  23.0  28.0  18.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 114.6  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  51.0  43.0  18.0   8.0   4.0  29.0  41.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  65.0  62.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -9.0 -16.0  -9.0  -1.0   3.0  13.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        5.4%        6.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       24.3%       18.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       11.5%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.1%       11.5%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       10.2%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       13.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%