Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  33.0  44.0  32.5  51.7  53.1  52.4  39.1  N  U VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  21.0  28.0  18.0  33.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 104.3 102.0 105.0  59.6  19.2  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  44.0  -3.0  13.0  12.0 105.0  46.0  80.0  N  N  U  U  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -20.0 -14.0 -10.0  -6.0 -10.0  -7.0 -13.0  N VF VF  F  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.9%       16.6%       23.2%
 25kt / 24h       25.9%       34.8%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       25.2%       23.0%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       25.2%       23.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       22.2%       16.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       13.7%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        4.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%