Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  43.2  32.5  38.9  60.7  54.4  45.9  60.2  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  75.5  45.8  57.7  73.5  39.2  11.9   1.7  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  -3.0  13.0  -3.0  47.0 104.0  34.0  94.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  66.0  74.0  74.0  67.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -17.0 -10.0  -4.0 -10.0 -11.0 -20.0 -28.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.9%        7.8%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%        6.4%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        3.1%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%        3.1%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.4%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%