Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  33.4  47.6  54.3  51.9  46.3  46.6  59.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0  25.0  46.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  95.0  95.0  95.0  40.8   8.4  15.9   6.9  U  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -11.0   4.0  18.0  72.0  59.0  95.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  65.0  63.0  65.0  72.0  72.0  66.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0  15.0   9.0   1.0 -14.0 -25.0  -6.0  -4.0 VF  U  U  N VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        2.0%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        3.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        1.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        1.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.2%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%