Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    120.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.2  43.4  49.4  48.1  55.1  41.7  51.2  63.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  33.0  30.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0  86.2  41.8  45.7  40.9  38.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  18.0  14.0  54.0  35.0  98.0  52.0  80.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  71.0  72.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  23.0  14.0  22.0  39.0  29.0  19.0  21.0  N VU  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%