Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032020 200804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.4  44.8  48.3  45.1  50.2  60.8  64.2  67.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6  80.4  64.7  55.8  53.4  41.7  47.1  27.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  90.0  65.0  38.0  98.0  58.0  33.0  66.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0  22.0  14.0  33.0  30.0  24.0 -16.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons