Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042020 200801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  33.0  28.3  26.3  36.3  29.9  36.2  36.8  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  24.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 111.5  87.7  50.9  34.6  32.8  30.7  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  58.0  58.0  36.0  54.0   0.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  81.0  83.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0 -11.0  -3.0  -6.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        4.6%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       15.0%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.4%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        5.4%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        8.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%