Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042020 200802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  36.2  42.5  38.3  40.8  46.4  43.3  45.9  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  70.4  58.8  54.7  39.7  31.2  25.5  20.9  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  49.0 114.0 108.0  74.0  87.0  93.0  87.0  U  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  86.0  84.0  81.0  82.0  75.0  82.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  12.0  16.0  16.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons