Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042020 200802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  34.2  30.4  37.9  46.8  47.7  42.8  39.5  U  U  N  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  51.0  37.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         45.8  64.3  70.4  60.9  89.3 113.6 130.0 127.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  37.0  58.0  53.0  64.0  63.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  87.0  84.0  82.0  85.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -8.0 -15.0   0.0 -28.0 -25.0 -45.0  N  F  F VF  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons