Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042020 200802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    103.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  29.9  31.7  35.9  27.8  35.4  35.4  35.4  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  59.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.4  89.6  94.3  88.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  48.0  35.0  48.0  46.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  77.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0 -16.0 -14.0 -18.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons