Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052020 200808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  15.2  18.9  29.2  23.4  50.2  58.0  54.6  F  F  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  65.0  64.0  32.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  54.1  44.7  34.1  14.4  F  F  F  F  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  21.0  -5.0  32.0  78.0  25.0  79.0  34.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -9.0 -22.0 -32.0 -53.0 -89.0   7.0 -26.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%       10.1%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.4%       44.0%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       22.8%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h       10.1%       22.8%       16.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       21.9%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       33.6%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.6%       16.5%       10.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        5.6%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        7.8%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%