Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052020 200809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.40    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  20.9  22.1  29.6  47.9  57.6  73.0  64.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0  68.0  45.0  40.0  26.2   3.5   3.1   3.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  97.0 107.0  51.0  42.0  42.0   9.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  18.0  10.0  -4.0  27.0  -3.0 110.0 109.0 VU VU  U  F VU  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons