Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  33.8  33.3  35.2  39.4  34.7  35.7  36.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  50.0  45.0  34.0  25.0  22.0  29.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -22.0 -50.0 -64.0 -22.0 -12.0 -14.0 -22.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  42.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%