Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    146.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.5  36.7  36.1  29.4  34.3  31.7  38.1  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  40.0  38.0  22.0  28.0  46.0  53.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -61.0 -35.0 -10.0 -19.0  -9.0 -25.0  -2.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -1.0  -5.0 -10.0   1.0  -5.0  -1.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%