Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  38.5  36.7  32.6  31.5  31.1  32.5  39.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  50.0  45.0  45.0  40.0  44.0  47.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -40.0 -28.0  -7.0  -7.0  -9.0 -10.0 -11.0 -13.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0  -4.0   3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        0.9%        1.4%