Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  32.2  30.0  24.4  29.6  27.8  32.6  36.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  20.0  28.0  29.0  46.0  51.0  53.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -35.0 -18.0 -23.0 -34.0 -12.0 -33.0   8.0 -22.0 VU  U VU VU  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0   7.0   0.0   6.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%