Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  29.9  24.4  26.0  27.7  27.4  33.5  35.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  62.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -23.0 -34.0 -32.0  -6.0 -14.0 -32.0 -47.0  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  47.0  49.0  52.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        2.7%        4.8%