Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  23.9  25.3  23.4  23.0  31.7  33.0  41.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  40.0  48.0  52.0  64.0  60.0  12.0  37.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -31.0 -14.0 -24.0 -33.0  21.0 -18.0 -12.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  46.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   9.0  12.0  10.0  10.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        3.3%        5.5%