Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  25.1  22.7  22.6  24.8  26.6  31.3  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  44.0  48.0  49.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -14.0 -24.0 -20.0  16.0 -18.0   5.0 -16.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  42.0  41.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.5%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       10.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        4.6%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%        6.6%       10.0%