Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    137.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  18.6  20.3  24.4  23.0  28.8  32.8  33.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  49.0  52.0  64.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -5.0 -11.0  16.0   7.0   2.0   3.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  45.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       14.2%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.7%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       20.6%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        7.1%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        9.6%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        6.4%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       15.0%       13.5%       14.3%