Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  21.5  24.8  21.7  28.2  32.8  38.2  44.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  68.0  66.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -5.0  -4.0   5.0  -2.0 -12.0 -18.0 -25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.7%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       12.0%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        4.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        3.0%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        6.6%        8.5%