Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.8  21.8  23.7  34.8  25.9  38.5  37.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  74.0  74.0  39.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 106.2 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  16.0   7.0  -4.0  -1.0 -32.0 -18.0 -20.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       10.9%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       12.4%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        5.5%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        3.4%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        5.4%        6.3%