Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062020 200812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    133.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  21.0  21.6  27.9  29.4  24.3  24.3  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  58.0  58.0  69.0  83.0  82.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   0.0 -24.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       15.3%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       19.6%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        6.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%       10.3%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        7.4%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       15.7%       13.6%