Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072020 200809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  26.9  27.1  35.8  32.1  44.5  41.6  41.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  67.0  71.0  56.0  23.0  21.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  71.0  80.0  50.0  80.0  32.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -15.0  -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -22.0 -17.0 -17.0 VF VF  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.9%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       23.4%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        7.5%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        7.5%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        7.4%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       24.2%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        8.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        1.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        6.4%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.8%        3.3%