Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072020 200810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  36.6  35.2  33.1  45.0  38.8  38.8  38.8  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  68.0  46.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  66.7  98.0  98.0  98.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  58.0   9.0  79.0  37.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -7.0 -17.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  F VF  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.9%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       17.0%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.3%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.3%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%