Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072020 200811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  38.4  38.4  38.4  38.4  38.4  38.4  38.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  92.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.0%        7.9%       17.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       15.9%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       10.8%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       10.8%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        9.6%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        5.2%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%