Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072020 200811 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.30 116.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.9 45.9 49.7 47.5 32.9 33.1 35.5 53.2 VU VU VU VU U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.3 122.3 120.1 111.5 69.2 51.8 45.8 38.4 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 13.0 15.0 77.0 100.0 90.0 87.0 53.0 U U U N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 74.0 73.0 76.0 71.0 69.0 63.0 61.0 F N N F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 16.0 19.0 8.0 21.0 34.0 38.0 58.0 N U VU U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%