Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082020 200818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.2  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  44.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 115.1  66.7  54.8  49.7  37.6  37.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  36.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       22.0%       17.6%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       47.9%       36.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.7%       34.8%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       15.7%       34.8%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       29.2%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       41.8%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       28.6%       17.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%        8.8%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%       10.7%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%