Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082020 200818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  18.1  21.6  25.2  19.6  32.5  32.4  48.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  31.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0  91.5  81.6  51.7  44.3  45.5  54.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  27.0  42.0  16.0  23.0  31.0  60.0  48.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  68.0  72.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  12.0   4.0   8.0  11.0  14.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.9%       32.3%       35.1%
 25kt / 24h       33.1%       50.3%       41.7%
 30kt / 24h       24.5%       42.8%       33.6%
 35kt / 24h       24.5%       42.8%       33.6%
 40kt / 24h       13.4%       38.8%       26.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       30.3%       19.7%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       17.6%       11.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%