Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092020 200822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  27.6  31.0  27.3  34.6  38.0  41.0  40.3  N  N  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  66.0  48.0  34.0  33.0  47.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  74.0  50.0  20.0  -8.0   3.0 -21.0  34.0  F  N  N  U  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  17.0   5.0   6.0  -3.0  -5.0  15.0   7.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.8%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       23.8%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        8.3%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        8.3%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        7.5%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       23.9%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        8.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        6.8%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        4.3%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        6.4%        5.7%